The end of the "Growth on autopilot" era + Flippa in Sofia on May 21

The number one problem I see across executive and director-level conversations in both B2B and B2C this year is that thousands of leaders are panicked as they can’t “make money out of thin air.”

This is led by several factors, some objective and some - previously inflated, restoring back to reality.

And M&A is always a strong solution to these problems - don’t miss the Flippa meetup announcement at the end of the intro.

Why company growth was a fad in 2018-2023

1. Making money out of nowhere isn’t a sustainable business practice. It’s usually close to impossible, although there are specific instances and edge cases where it could work (a groundbreaking discovery, once-in-a-lifetime invention, free VC money because someone decided to throw cash at you)

2. Money management had been gauged on user acquisition, not cash acquisition. I spoke about the broken hockey stick approach in my Entrepreneur com analysis on Dec 28, 2022, and this has been further reinforced since.

3. Investor patience and risk tolerance has been extraordinarily high in the past decade. There is no sensible reason tens of thousands of startups had been backed in the period on the premise of a “decent idea”, with no strong track record, located in areas unsuitable to network, with no strong connections in the corresponding space. The fact that a handful of businesses got lucky and played the game of business for free (and received unreciprocical exposure in all media) is largely misleading.

4. Global company efficiency has reached a new low in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Tons of benched people in corporations, NPCs just showing up occasionally to work, and even hiring people just to prevent the competition to access their know-how. That’s impossible and unsustainable in any realistic business scenario.

I had been predicting the bubble burst as early as 2017 and 2018 - and honestly, surprised it took another 4-5 years to catch up.

But digging into books, it’s easy to find a vast number of public tech companies reporting consistent profit losses yet releasing press releases that focus on “user growth and retention”.

Notable businesses not maintaining a healthy P&L

Take Asana as an example here. Disclaimer: I’ve invested in Asana and it’s a red in my portfolio in individual picks:

The process reflects the market turbulence in 2022:

• spiking inflation rates

• the interest rate bump by the Fed

• Elon taking over Twitter and slashing 75% of its headcount while maintaining stable systems

• investor letters putting pressure on Meta wasting tens of billions on VR experiments, or Google paying out-of-market salaries while productivity is nowhere to be find

A couple of layoff rounds were announced in Asana to support the “aim for profitability” journey. Look at the fiscal year 2023 results (ending Jan 31, 2023):

• Revenues: Revenues were $547.2 million, an increase of 45% year over year.

• Operating Loss: GAAP operating loss was $407.8 million, or 75% of revenues, compared to GAAP operating loss of $265.2 million, or 70% of revenues, in fiscal 2022. Non-GAAP operating loss was $207.3 million, or 38% of revenues, compared to non-GAAP operating loss of $157.1 million, or 42% of revenues, in fiscal 2022.

As much as I love Asana as a user, I don’t see the numbers checking in as an investor. These unit economics may be working with the amount of marketing and maintaining the current pricing, but would that be the case if the business was required to be cashflow positive, as virtually every bootstrapped business?

Another company I swear by (and invest in) is Cloudflare.

After the peak on top of the bubble in late 2021, it almost reached that high this Q1 after the 2024 annual results, right before the tariff and macro outlook that brought the entire market down.

But was it profitable in 2024? The answer is no:

Full Year 2024 Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Total revenue of $1,669.6 million representing an increase of 29% year-over-year.

• Gross Profit: GAAP gross profit was $1,290.9 million, or 77.3% gross margin, compared to $989.7 million, or 76.3%, in fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP gross profit was $1,313.6 million, or 78.7% gross margin, compared to $1,015.8 million, or 78.3%, in fiscal 2023.

• Operating Income (Loss): GAAP loss from operations was $154.8 million, or 9.3% of total revenue, compared to $185.5 million or 14.3% of total revenue, in fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP income from operations was $230.1 million, or 13.8% of total revenue, compared to $122.0 million, or 9.4% of total revenue, in fiscal 2023.

• Net Income (Loss): GAAP net loss was $78.8 million compared to $183.9 million for fiscal 2023. GAAP net loss per basic and diluted share was $0.23, compared to $0.55 for fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP net income was $269.0 million compared to $169.7 million for fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share was $0.75, compared to $0.49 for fiscal 2023.

This analysis by Simply Wall Street showcases the difference between revenue, profitability, and free cash flow:

Cloudflare was in the red in terms of cash flow in 2022 and early 2023, with earnings being consistently below the line (projected to hit break-even later in 2027).

Don’t get me wrong; I don’t think the business is in distress, it’s powering a good chunk of the web, stores a ton of invaluable data, and can very likely plug a $5/mo plan or a small usage $2 plan for the cohort of tens of millions of free users to access something. While some churn would occur, many would gladly pay a modest fee for 5X what an average mediocre hosting company does while charging more.

So the business is technically valuable, influential, great brand and connections, and growing. But also generating negative profit, which the 99.999% of businesses (bootstrapped, not VC-funded or IPO’d) simply cannot afford to do for longer than a year, even 4-6 months being a stretch for most.

And while investor value is tied to “future profits”, many investors have been losing patience, with a growing number of failing VC-funded startups and plenty of tech giants staying in the red for a decade or more. After all, diversified investing is one thing, but gambling is becoming more common than ever - and now businesses are again gauged on EBITDA or profitability or other metrics promising success early on.

An external break toward millions of other businesses

The stock market is trickling down to smaller businesses, from VC-funded to bootstrapped, and many relying on that “growth at all cost” momentum from the core tech orgs. As they are squeezing budgets and moving to different measurement metrics, this in turn affects all the layers below - agencies, contractors, vendors, SaaS tools, partners, and any facility-related roles as headcount is going down - local coffee shops and restaurants, barber shops, you name it.

• Buyers take 2x longer to make a decision today. And not every SaaS tool just makes it to the arsenal.

• Scrutiny from the top is higher - and for a good measure.

• Chasing “results” vs. promises is now the norm.

• Most solutions are still selling features, not solutions to problems. AI videos or a CRM are still an instrument, but unless you can generate ROI from either, it remains a subscription with no revenue gain.

And with AI poluting the space, it’s not assisting the demand generation process AT ALL.

As a result, businesses largely fail to perform, hit quota, or scale predictably.

Because growth was previously measured by user acquisition, but now gauged by CAC payback and LTV, plus cash on hand.

And spending millions a month on Google Ads or Meta isn’t yielding the same results either - when companies were generating $0.5 in ROAS for every dollar, being still unprofitable, they generate $0.25 now with 2x longer cycles.

Most business models end up being unsustainable at best - generally tied to personal relationships and mutual partnerships that could fit the equation of 1 + 1 = 3 (two struggling businesses being stronger with a strategic partnership).

Companies and individuals are stuck in 1 out of the 3 categories today

Where you fall on this line is mainly driven by luck.

1. If your solution/service was made obsolete because of the war, pandemic, TikTok, an AI feature, or a market that’s dying, this is horrible, and solutions won’t be coming anytime soon.

2. If you’re riding the wave having raised a ton of cash in late 2021 or just heading an R&D division in Open AI, or are still based in the Bay Area and have strong insights running a profitable venture with long-term contracts (not government), congratulations!

3. Everyone else is mostly in the middle, either “getting by” or losing some, but still holding up, or generating some light gain, but not sufficient to reinvest back, or diversify, or try something else.

Because the reality is, the market is oversaturated, certain industries have been commoditized, online funnels are no longer working as they used to (including organic or social), and scaling with 1:1 meetings and events is dramatically slower compared to the previous model. People are also pressed to work harder during busier economic times, with “return to the office” in combination limiting the hours and hours of doom scrolling online during the pandemic days.

Online reach is down for a multitude of reasons, including the list above. Less time for R&D, smaller teams to do due diligence/procurement, heavier yield for productivity, higher scrutiny on budgets. All adding up to a slowdown in purchases.

Until better market conditions are secured with global trade and relationships, and halting wars (instead of sparking new ones), stronger economy is unlikely - except for specific pockets and industries that are still generating decent results.

Acquisitions are up - meet us with Flippa in Sofia on May 21

One key area that’s never getting old (especially today) is strategic acquisitions.

Entrepreneurs and businesses can always take an edge when acquiring a solution targeting a tangible market, or opening up a new channel, or merging in a data source (consumer pool or an email list with potential clients). This is why the M&A market is always strong.

Some founders also lose interest in the rapidly shifting categories, or look into retirement, or want to shift to a lifestyle business and spend more time with kids/grandchildren.

Flippa has been spearheading the digital M&A efforts over the past 15 years, with strong tours across North America and Europe - together with companies like Google, Ezoic, and Semrush. After two successful meetups in Sofia, it’s time for a new Exit meetup in Sofia on May 21 at 6pm.

We’ll be gathering at Barter (Puzzl co-working space) and here’s a snapshot from a previous event we hosted together with Flippa:

We’ve had guests from all over the world, from Australia to the US, from the UK through Netherlands to Spain to Serbia and Macedonia, so if you’re involved with digital M&A or want to explore the market and meet executives, M&A advisors, and core members of the Flippa team, join us on May 21.

(If you’re new to Flippa, I interviewed their CEO on the podcast - dive in to learn more about the available opportunities you don’t want to miss.)

Mario

💼 3 B2B sales & marketing trends report. I authored a piece for Demand Gen Report discussing the core trends we see for Q2 and Q3.

👪️ You can’t replace some roles with AI. No matter how hard you try, the essence of the business is led by humans. I covered that in a short LinkedIn post open for discussions, backed by a longer story of my life journey in tech and why I’m betting on humans again. AI isn’t solving core problems on the demand/growth stack and optimizing internally is not effective today.

📰 “Better You” joins our newsletters portfolio! 13,000+ subscribers added to our network with the acquisition of “Better You”. The synergy process is still under way, but glad to be expanding the family of entrepreneurial members here.

💻️ Why I read X more than LinkedIn this year. Here’s a comparison of my X feed vs. LinkedIn. The quality of users I interact with on X is dramatically higher than LI. The algorithm is 10x superior and not just led by clickbait. I’ve met too many executives who have given up on social over the past 12-18 months and this is not surprising.

✍️ Moving to first-party and audiences is a trend. Speaking about “the Year the Interned died” in a post by Hiten Shah I shared over the weekend. I see more of these popping up daily - no surprises here if you’ve been reading the newsletter long enough.

📃 And why I love doola and my US LLCs:

(use DOOLAMARIO10 for 10% off if you join the family of LLC founders)

🔖 Stay ahead of regulatory risk. With tighter global privacy laws reshaping email marketing this year, new rules demand clear AI consent, advanced authentication, and cross‑border compliance. Learn how to protect deliverability and scale legally in this regulatory briefing.

🔖 Safeguard global returns. Exchange‑rate volatility chips away at cross‑border profits. Explore 10 proven hedging strategies that help institutional investors and global operators reduce exposure, cut costs, and defend margins.

🔖 Unlock what’s shaping mobile‑led ROI in 2025. Innovations like AI‑powered device management, 5G edge strategies, and zero‑trust security are driving operational efficiency. Discover the seven key trends set to boost your ROI.

🔖 Boost your cognitive ROI. Instead of pushing through mental fatigue, top leaders apply systematic frameworks. Explore how decision arbitrage, energy zoning, and cognitive batching keep them sharp in this strategic resource.

🔖 Future‑proof your investment strategy. Advancements in AI make predictive analytics accessible across teams, powering instant insights. Discover how companies enhance ROI and accelerate growth with cutting‑edge AI forecasting solutions.

🔖 Gain strategic clarity. Bill Gates famously uses dedicated time away to foster innovative thinking. Discover how executives implement similar strategic retreats for impactful decision-making in this guide.

📰 Big Tech meets Big Politics. Elon Musk's growing connections with Trump, especially his role in the contentious Department of Government Efficiency, highlight a notable link between Silicon Valley and Washington. Dive into the full implications of their partnership in this report.

📰 3G Capital’s $9B bet on footwear. As Skechers becomes private in a $9B deal, 3G Capital is increasing its focus on global consumer brands ready to grow. Read more about the Skechers acquisition and what it means for investors looking at undervalued market leaders.

📰 Google reverses course on cookies. In an unexpected move, Google said it will continue supporting third-party cookies in Chrome, putting its Privacy Sandbox initiative on hold. For those observing the adtech industry, this suggests some strategic shifts and opens up new possibilities in contextual and first-party data approaches.

📰 Waymo accelerates autonomy deployment. With a new 239,000-sq-ft Arizona facility, Waymo and Magna are reducing turnaround times, preparing robotaxis for the road just 30 minutes after assembly. See how this ambitious step marks the next phase in commercial AV growth.

📰 The rise of Agentic Commerce. As AI makes shopping more personalized and effortless, brands focusing on agents rather than search are set to succeed. See how agentic AI is changing payments, discovery, and the way consumers engage in the future.

📰 New price transparency rules coming soon. Starting May 12, the FTC’s broad ban on hidden fees for live events and short-term rentals takes effect, requiring platforms and providers to display total upfront prices. Find out how this change impacts revenue approaches for consumers in the full breakdown.

📰 Why false positivity fails. Ben Horowitz openly shares how hiding difficult truths behind a false sense of cheerfulness can undermine trust and hinder solutions. Find out why CEOs need to drop the “positivity delusion” and focus on building strong, action-oriented teams.

Let’s see the latest offers from Flippa. Don’t forget to sign up for their newsletter for daily/weekly/monthly offers like these.

AI-Powered Soccer Coaching SaaS: Generates 80% recurring revenue, has a <2% churn rate, and 17K+ active users. Built for scale with minimal owner involvement. Listed as open to offers.

Amazon FBM Home & Garden Brand: A 4-year-old, UK-based Amazon FBM store offering quality Home & Garden products with a 29% profit margin and $35,798 annual profit. Available for $145,464.

Scalable Niche Watch Brand: D2C ecommerce brand selling car-rim-inspired watches with $140K annual profit, $111 AOV, and 90K email subs / 66K followers. Features 5 high-performing SKUs and solid brand loyalty. Priced at $339,000.

Children’s Learning Store: Australian ecommerce store selling educational toys and tools, with $149,990 annual profit, a 17% return customer rate, and 45K+ customers. Listed for $480,874.

Profitable Dining Product Brand (19yrs): Ecommerce brand selling hot stone dining products B2B and D2C across marketplaces. $244K annual profit, $201 AOV, 19 years old, lean ops, high repeat rate. Listed for $650,000.

Digital Creators Monetization Platform: Subscription-based platform enabling creators to monetize their audience. Generates $308,333 in annual profit, with 207K monthly page views. Listed for $1,500,000.

Need My Help?

Keeping myself busy - here are the main projects I focus on:

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🌠 Feature your business across the community? The B2B Ecosystem includes this newsletter and 40 other digital properties (directories, newsletters, blogs, SaaS, and social accounts) targeting B2B executives. See how your business can benefit.

📈 International founder looking into US LLCs? Check out doola and their “Business in a Box” model. Suitable for both foreigners and US citizens and both for residents and non-residents.

📊 Into digital M&A? I work closely with Flippa’s marketplace. They offer a vast variety of online businesses for any buyer’s interest. Or if you’re ready for an exit, Flippa provides the tools to list your business and close the deal.

💼 Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink.