Q3 global forecasts and how 2025 compares geoeconomically

We’re winding up June in a matter of days - and it’s been a BUSY year. Here’s a summary of what 2025 looked like so far:

• Overall stronger compared to 2024 - With some exceptions, business has been moving faster and higher up this year compared to the windfalls last one

• Surpassing the oddly quiet Sep-Nov period before the elections - Q4 was a wild card for anyone outside of DTC. I wrote this newsletter on Dec 18 recapping the crazy 30 days after the elections and before the holidays, outlining the broken seasonality and the reasons behind.

• Both B2B and B2C launched early in Jan - Jan started strong, though, for a few months! Most industries were pushing successfully after a weak season and uncertainty in Oct-Nov. For the first 10-11 weeks of the year, business is booming, stalled projects and initiatives from last year kicking off fast - and even sales and strategy calls on Jan 3 - Jan 6 with high velocity.

• Trade wars did put a stop - this one was unprecedented or unexpected by most executives. It led to a pretty wild mix of frantic shopping (stocking on supplies) and hectic looking for new suppliers and alternatives. It was a rough few weeks and far from over for some businesses. My podcast with veteran CEO and fractional CFO lead Brad Kayton was a good rundown of the situation for both B2B and B2C.

• Global conflicts were hardcore, luckily brief for now - escalated tension on the past 2 weeks between other great world powers was scary. Will things look calmer this week, it will certainly take at least a month or two to confirm stability and predictability. 2023 Q4 was put on pause for the same reason and we don’t need more ongoing conflicts for sure.

• USD tanked and still hovering low - a couple weeks ago, the USD exchange rate hit its lowest point since March of 2022. This also bends the economy in different directions - foreign investing is losing in the reverse currency, but shopping is cheaper; local US companies can sell higher volumes to weaker currencies, but local salaries can’t benefit from travel or foreign purchases due to a weaker dollar.

• Digital ecosystem is bust - 2023 ended on a questionable note with Google’s SEO updates hitting publishers, and 2024 came with announcing AI overviews and slowly rolling out. Meanwhile, social AI content + comments and programmatic SEO ruined most of the web. Professional businesses are gradually pulling away from social or digital channels and diversifying into others that perform better.

• Events are more powerful than ever - events have had one of their best years in the past decade. With other channels failing, face time carries a lot of value. Executives facing a myriad of questions - how is RTO going? Who is doing more layoffs? Is AI helping optimize and solve problems? Which channels work today? And many more around trade and geopolicy, conversations happening live between small groups and various 1:1s.

It’s definitely been a roller coaster - and it’s not over yet.

Q3 forecasts - two possible scenarios

Like most other geo predictions over the last 5 years, stability and predictability are hard to find. Several factors may lead to stagnation or depression, or one end vs. smooth growth and sailing going forward.

1. Geopolitical tension - one of the most impactful wild cards in the last few years. A united front toward peace is about to unlock trade again, open up more opportunities, faster trading, more innovation, better focus, fewer losses on the military or infrastructure front (I won’t even touch on the human factor and saving lives). The hopes are for policies that facilitate these for everyone’s good.

2. Job market - the biggest employment conflict since the pandemic is the massive clash between growing economies and teams vs. a recessionary state with low productivity and inflated costs. The move from “hiring everyone + work from home” to “ongoing layoffs, stronger performance criteria, and operational efficiency” are critical. Right now, the job market is normalizing for the most part, but it’s up to individuals (FTEs) to collectively adapt to the new equation - which we’ve been seeing happening over the past 2 years with smaller and leaner teams and lower budgets, but more responsibilities.

3. Trade relationships - the geo part is aligned to stronger or weaker relationships between countries and regions, and finding alternatives for business partnerships, outsourcing, innovation, oil supplies, and other resources. As this is still up in the air, the hope is to stabilize and renew/strengthen international relations to support economic growth and stability.

4. AI evolution and adoption - despite all the hallucinations and limited use in certain areas (sales and marketing included), LLMs are indisputably leading to increased operational efficiency for businesses that know how to integrate them successfully. The bar is going up for individuals with limited skills or low performance, some mediocre skills or tasks becoming obsolete, and slower performers having to adapt through LLMs or look for other opportunities. But top line revenue is still not impacted directly - “demand” is still constant and not booming due to this innovation.

5. Seasonality - the summer season is here, and if you look into the 2012-2019 period, it used to be historically slower (vacations, school breaks, and lower inclination to take major decisions before September). Ever since the pandemic, this seasonality has been pushed left and right - dragging decisions until further notice, or catching up on slower Q1/Q2, following the impact of wars or awaiting vaccinations, and many more. With leaner teams and a volatile Q2, it’s likely that business will be running at a normal cadence over the summer - definitely not at full power, but not slowing down dramatically.

I take snapshots of the economy through 500+ different companies - my own businesses like DevriX, our portfolios of existing clients, the Strategic Growth Circle cohort of businesses, my angel investments, the CEO Hangout community, and more.

This covers B2B and B2C businesses across North America and Europe, with some samples from Asia, Latin America, Australia, and Africa. The myriad of industries + business segments makes for a diverse representation shaping out the “weekly signal” - helping identify patterns across regions, business segments, ICPs, and service and product lines.

🎙️ Got any Q3 predictions yourself? Hit Reply and let me know - I may compile some responses in the next two editions.

Mario

 Books I read this month - I’ve been zooming in on several books this month for different reasons:

• I read LinkedIn’s Five Circles by my friend Alex Krastev

• One dystopian read, “Nuclear War” by Annie Jacobsen - a detailed intelligence brief of what happens if things really turn to worst (30% in)

• Ray Dalio’s “How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” (20% in)

• “Main Street Millionaire” by Codie Sanchez (70% in)

• “The Sweaty Startup” by Nick Hueber (10% in)

💼 Discussing AI and Human Creativity today - speaking on an Agency Advantage panel by Cloudways (a DigitalOcean company).

👥 Should we get political and social? I’ve been somewhat vocal on my take on world peace both in this newsletter and social networks, and I see conversations across X and Threads, albeit in limited circles. I raised that on LinkedIn and different opinions popped up in the comments.

🥸 On Meta’s smart glasses. Meta just launched a new “category of Performance AI glasses” together with Oakley, an EssilorLuxottica brand. I have the Ray-Bans (the 2023 model) and also own an early Snap Spectacles pair, but the Oakley doesn’t seem dramatically more advanced. Moreover, the AR glasses by Snap were theoretically superior, just really, really buggy at the time - while Meta is primarily an AI voice assistant on the go with a camera for reels on the front.

🔖 Fix wasted ad spend with better bidding. Learn how adjusting bid strategies can protect ROI in this guide on PPC algorithm changes.

🔖 AI tools cut workforce costs. Smarter scheduling software lowers labor costs and improves employee satisfaction, as shown in this breakdown of AI in scheduling.

🔖 Personalized funnels lift purchase rates. B2B marketers report up to 287% conversion gains by using cross-channel personalization.

🔖 Drip campaigns drive higher clicks. Explore how AI-powered emails deliver 119% more engagement in the 2025 drip guide.

🔖 Fix funnel leaks with behavioral data. See where users drop off and how to stop it in this guide on resolving funnel friction.

🔖 Influencer data can sharpen your strategy. Learn how to use influencer feedback to improve targeting and content.

🔖 Legacy takes more than branding. Companies like Medtronic build long-term value through consistent execution, detailed in The Quiet Legacy.

🔖 Protect your focus from digital noise. Learn how leaders defend strategic clarity in this executive guide.

📰 Digital sovereignty at risk. Europe’s cloud reliance on U.S. tech firms presents geopolitical threats if Trump wins.

📰 Transatlantic trade needs streamlining. German leader warns slow EU-US trade talks may cut Germany’s growth by 0.3%.

📰 Evive expands through acquisition. Evive acquires Maid Brigade to expand ecofriendly franchise network.

📰 Botpress raises $25M. Botpress raises $25M to scale its AI agent infrastructure for real-world automation.

📰 Qualytics lands $10M funding. Qualytics lands $10M to provide automated data integrity for enterprise AI at scale.

📰 Stanford offers new AI framework. Stanford presents AI framework assessing where roles need automation versus support.

EA hires ad monetization lead. EA hires Alex Dao from Snap to expand in-game ad monetization while preserving engagement.

📰 Spotify debuts Creative Lab Hub. Spotify launches Creative Lab Hub and council to help brands create native ad experiences.

📰 Aflac confirms customer data breach. Aflac confirms customer personal data stolen in cyberattack, highlighting rising social engineering risks.

📰 VCs to reveal next bets. VCs from Index and Greylock will share themes at TechCrunch Disrupt 2025.

📰 Alternate oil corridors emerge. Saudi and UAE pipelines could offset Strait of Hormuz risks to stabilize oil flows.

📰 Harvey raises $300M for legal AI. Harvey raises $300M at $5B valuation to build legal AI tools for law firms worldwide.

📰 ChatGPT may add advertising. Sam Altman says ChatGPT may introduce ads to offset its $3B annual operating costs.

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Need My Help?

Keeping myself busy - here are the main projects I focus on:

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