On timing, leverage, scarcity - and juggling short/long goals

Ever regret not investing in crypto 10 years ago or missing the big wave of Nvidia a couple years back before the stock exploded (thanks to the AI chips?)

Some monumental events in business look astonishing - just like inventing Facebook or hoarding a domain like chat dot com (last purchased for $15M).

But one of the most significant risks here is ending up with the “shiny syndrome”, chasing every fad, or selling during the panic mode of global events.

I have 5 rules to overcome the analysis paralysis + all the surrounding distractions around us.

But before we get there, if LinkedIn is a channel you use for work (or don’t, but understand why it’s critical), here’s my latest podcast episode with Aware’s founder, Alex Boyd:

Strategies, predictions, maximizing efficiency with Aware - this is the go-to podcast for everything you need to know about LinkedIn in 2025.

(Add this to your weekend list or listen in the car.)

And now, back to the five ways to isolate yourself from the ongoing fad outside:

1. Don’t time the market

An old investing adage says that time in the market is far more important than trying to “time the market.”

Different studies show that very, very few individual investors - or even professional brokers - can outpace the S&P 500 index performance. While it’s technically possible to just bet on Tesla or Nvidia or Google and keep pacing 2x to 5x higher for a certain period of time, the global economy will keep expanding - but that’s not always valid for individual stocks.

Nvidia just lost $600 billion in market cap overnight due to China announcing their DeepSeek LLM. Whether that premise is true or not, investing is less about business performance and more about investor confidence in the future premise of a company.

The same fate may follow Tesla in case of dipping sales, or self-driving mode failing to materialize, or a massive safety failure with its batteries. Certain edge cases can never be fully predicted.

And I’m not referring to investing alone; this is just as valid for putting the reps in business, family, hobbies. Pick a small handful of activities you want to commit to for real and don’t look back every few weeks.

2. Take small bets

Don’t risk your entire portfolio on the latest fad.

I apply the 80-20 Paretto principle more often than not. In this case, it’s even 90-10 - certain and proven investments vs. risky and volatile ones.

If business ventures, the stock market, agency dividends, and familiar acquisitions generate predictable income, I allocate 10-15% on side experiments. Most of them don’t pan out, but some do - and pay off for the rest of the portfolio. A couple of angel investments are broadly covering for the rest of the portfolio, and three of my satellite projects pay off for everything else.

3. Study the losers

The media is obsessed with the Musks and Bezoses of the world. Familiarity and celebrity clout generate clicks and help deliver advertising revenue.

But as founders, executives, investors, and thinkers, our duty is to study failing stories, startups going through bankruptcy, and entrepreneurs losing everything. Only this will paint a complete picture of risks, missed opportunities, poor timing, not meeting the right people, failing to reach product-market fit.

History books cover emperors and kings, their conquests and pillaging new territories. But this same story can be read in reverse - how nations have failed to defend their borders, build strong armies, or protect cities against well-coordinated attacks.

Luck plays a role in most happy stories. Don’t miss the failures.

4. Diversify

As a great proponent of diversification, I wrote a long-form guide on 30+ different ways to diversify your income (also applicable to students, 9-to-5 employees, and blue-collar workers).

Betting everything on one horse is a risk I wouldn’t take myself.

The 2020s have consistently proven that we live in an era of wars, pandemics, global tech revolutions, a swing between work-from-home and return to office, natural disasters in some of the largest cities in the world. Virtually nobody is safe.

Working with aspiring startup founders, I always talk about:

• Build recurring revenue ASAP

• Optimize for profitability (net positive)

• Diversify

5. Optimize for profitability

R&D investments have been put on hold across the broader B2B ecosystem for nearly 30 months now. The market goes through ups and downs - and risk appetite is higher when access to capital is cheaper and we see more underdogs getting unicorn valuations every other day.

This is not the reality for most of us today, though.

And optimizing for profitability is what I’d recommend 9 out of 10 times.

Unless you’re building the next Nvidia AI chip, odds are, you’ll be in this game for many, many years. Build a sustainable business that justifies that journey and makes it possible.

And if you’re still struggling with the ongoing tension, I’m breaking down Stoic-based practices on short-term problem solving with long-term strategy for building a successful business in my Strategic Growth Circle program.

P.S. I want to thank everyone voting for the newsletter name in the previous edition. Results are mixed, with a slight edge on keeping the newsletter the same. So I’ll keep it as-is for now:

Mario

✍️ Bottlenecks vs. productivity? I see a major difference between tactical content and understanding the core reasoning behind management bottleneck showing up over the past few months. Here’s the tl;dr.

✍️ Growing the newsletter with ads - The Growth Blueprint is always experimenting with different growth paradigms, and Refind Ads is solving some problems well enough for now.

🏆️ Local networking and local sales - I’ve been spending more time on 1:1 relationships and offline networking than ever, including 3 different business events this week. Shout out to some of our Strategic Circle members conquering local markets!

🔖 Rethink Workforce Strategies with Predictive Analytics — Transform HR planning by using predictive analytics to forecast hiring needs, cut turnover, and improve decision-making, just as companies like Walmart and IBM do.

🔖 Understand Your Customers on a Deeper Level — Psychographic data can drive personalized campaigns, increase loyalty, and improve ad performance. Dive into the benefits of psychographic data integration to refine your decision-making and maximize returns.

🔖 Boost Your Marketing ROI — See how businesses are achieving 65% better results by analyzing competitor budgets. Explore how to uncover industry spend patterns, leverage tools like SEMrush, and make smarter resource allocation decisions.

🔖 Discover Market Trends with AI — Turn customer feedback into meaningful market insights with AI-powered competitor review analysis. Learn how tools like Crayon and Brandwatch help identify market gaps, refine products, and sharpen your competitive strategy.

🔖 Strengthen Database Security While Keeping Systems Fast — Encryption safeguards data but often impacts performance. Learn practical approaches like selective encryption and hardware accelerators to maintain a balance between security and speed.

📃 DeepSeek challenges the AI giants. Chinese startup DeepSeek is shaking up the AI world with its R1 model that rivals U.S. leaders at a fraction of the cost. Could this spark a shift in the global tech race—or it's just a short-lived headline?

📃 OpenAI launches ChatGPT Gov for U.S. agencies. With the release of ChatGPT Gov, OpenAI takes a significant step toward providing secure, AI-driven solutions for federal, state, and local governments. This launch highlights the escalating race for AI dominance in key sectors.

📃 Oliver Zipse pushes for EU-U.S. tariff alignment. BMW's CEO Oliver Zipse has called on the EU to lower its tariff on U.S. vehicle imports from 10% to 2.5%, matching the current U.S. rate. The move comes as trade tensions loom and automakers face rising costs and competition from China.

📃 Musk calls out Trump’s AI megaproject. Elon Musk has slammed the $500 billion Stargate AI project announced by Trump, accusing its backers of overstating their financial commitments. The bold critique underscores Musk’s ongoing rivalry with OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman.

📃 Threads ads test signals monetization push. Meta has begun rolling out ads on Threads in the U.S. and Japan, its first attempt to monetize the microblogging app. The move comes as advertisers eye new platforms following recent disruptions in the social media landscape.

Let’s see the latest offers from Flippa. Don’t forget to sign up for their newsletter for daily/weekly/monthly offers such as these.

AI-Powered Video Editing App - This app enabling users to edit photos and videos maintains a 4.6-star rating across 4.4K+ reviews and has generated a TTM revenue of $509K.

• Annual profit: $195,000

• Average monthly downloads: 67,000

• Business age: 2 years

Portable Humidifer Ecommerce - This ecommerce business specializing in stylish, portable humidifers has driven a TTM revenue of $1.3M.

• Annual profit: $273,000

• Average order value: $77

• Business age: 5 years

3-Product Business Building Portfolio - This business features a portfolio of three products which include an ad marketplace, analytics SaaS, and a digital course.

• Monthly profit: $11,024

• Average order value: $151

• Business age: 2 years

Need My Help?

Keeping myself busy - here are the main projects I focus on:

🌐 Scaling WordPress past 100M views? DevriX provides martech retainers to SMEs, publishers, eCommerce, SaaS, and more. Our plans start from $1,200/mo to $40K/mo and we manage high-traffic platforms, B2B SaaS apps, partnership management solutions, supporting $10M - $250M businesses with scalability, custom funnels, CRO, big data augmentation, AI-driven processes, HubSpot workflows, programmatic SEO - and everything a modern business requires in digital in 2025.

🚀  Work 1:1 with me? At Growth Shuttle, I run two popular plans: Async Advisory for $3M - $30M founders and executive teams and the smaller Strategic Growth Circle for $100K - $500K entrepreneurs, agency founders, scale ups.

📈 International founder looking into US LLCs? Check out doola and their “Business in a Box” model. Suitable for both foreigners and US citizens and both for residents and non-residents.

📊 Into digital M&A? I work closely with Flippa’s marketplace. They offer a vast variety of online businesses for any buyer’s interest. Or if you’re ready for an exit, Flippa provides the tools to list your business and close the deal.

💼 Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink and use Equity to manage your ESOP tables in-house.