Foreign conflicts and global economy + expanding markets

You don’t have to be running a Fortune 500 company to feel the impact on global relations and political tension in different parts of the globe. Here’s why.

Regional political tension impacts us more than ever

Just 50 years ago, when the world wasn’t nearly as global as it is, breaking news were followed closely on radio and TV in every household. Major turmoil, military attacks, fears of retaliation. Kids were exposed to this nearly as much as adults.

Catch on a Mad Men episode or The Crown and you’ll see scenes of regular people following the news broadcasts, acknowledging the severity of these events.

Meanwhile, the global sense of “apathy” is sensed in social media and street conversations.

I’m writing this issue on a bench in Berlin, after a meeting with an Amazon peer, wearing French shoes, typing this on a Lenovo notebook (owned by China), a day after walking across the Holocaust Memorial downtown and ending the day in a Turkish restaurant. Several decades ago, that level of globalization would have been unthinkable - with lower access to technology, travel, accommodation, foreign language comprehension, travel safety, and more.

With more conflicts popping up over the past 4 years, our aggregated level of “business as usual” when issues don’t concern us directly and individually is alarming. It’s clear that the UN’s voice doesn’t carry a ton of weight either, NATO is questionably valuable, WHO wasn’t paid attention to during the pandemic, EU is calling for “reason” and nobody ever bothers to listen.

As individuals, we have the power to think, call for support, educate or peers and children, support peace initiatives, limit and report aggression nearby, elect political leaders with enough foresight and strength without resorting to international conflicts, and participate in and support brands and organizations that follow the same code at scale. Turning our backs on historical events may only worsen up, and eventually catch up to us.

I’m saying “no” to any forms of aggression and “yes” to regulating peace initiatives as best as possible. While measures and political regimes define that differently, any escalations impact innocent people, and these have been going on for 4 years in multiple countries with no end in sight.

Again, we’re all impacted as consumers and people

Yes, multinational companies with offices in 70 countries are always affected in cases like that - directly, with their consumers not buying in local offices while running afraid, or their stores being blasted with missiles, their staff not showing up at work, and public investors withdrawing for that reason.

As consumers, this is catching up to us, just like the semiconductor shortage during the pandemic or 8 weeks of late shipments due to pirates in the Red Sea, or tankers blocking passages, or strikes with airline companies, to name a few of the thousands of examples. The latest tariffs are still hovering over us in a similar fashion.

As people, working in globalized, international environments means that most of us have friends, colleagues, acquaintances, relatives in dozens of other countries. We may have traveled there. Our management team or investors may be based in or originate from these regions. The direct contacts with international peers are far from theoretical - it’s out there for us to see, feel, and react to.

The changing world order in 40 minutes

If I have to recommend a single resource to catch up on the cross-section of geopolitics and global economy, I would refer to Ray Dalio’s “Principles of the Changing World Order”. Dalio has authored multiple incredible books, including his brand new one - "How Countries Go Broke” - which I wholeheartedly recommend for more veteran readers with strong understanding of the big picture.

But the kickstart guide has been condensed into 42 minutes in a video worth bookmarking and watching this weekend:

While not a comprehensive replacement of the book, the video goes over 500 years of research conducted by Dalio on the rise and fall of major empires, how leading powers get comfortable and complacent, while underdogs keep investing time and effort at low cost to become dominant forces.

Unless countries make a strong push to prolong their highs or double down on their competitiveness to climb up the charts, the order follows this cycle, time and again.

In times of war, these cycles may change. As I’m writing this issue in Berlin, the capital of Germany has been the world’s third largest city in the 1920s, right after London and New York. WWII completely shifted the narrative while splitting the city in two separate halves, the West ran by Western parties and the East controlled by Russia and its proxies.

Today, four of the five largest cities are in China and one in Bangladesh, with over 20 million people each.

Rising economies are not just about population or county size, but GDP has been rising in other nations, following similar cycles.

The breakdown of leading industries by GDP is a supporting analysis I ran in a previous newsletter here: https://insider.growthshuttle.com/p/the-largest-industries-in-the-world-where-to-place-your-bets-for-the-2030s

Bottom line - studying history is a great teacher for the future of the world, both nations, economies, leading trends, and how innovation shapes empires. My takeaway for you: set aside some time to solidify your foundation and this will pay back tenfold.

Mario

🤝 Unity and global cooperation. Visiting Berlin this week, and it feels especially surreal amid today’s global tensions. Once divided, Germany now stands as proof that reconciliation is possible. Coexistence takes work - but it works.

💡 Ask-me-Anything with CHRO Maria Marcakis - As a followup of Maria’s webinar, last Thursday we gathered for one hour long AMA session on Emotional Intelligence for Founders digging into the most common triggers and tactics to deal with them. If you’re managing an organization or working with successful ones, join the CEO Hangout community to participate in our upcoming community events.

💼 The exit gets all the attention. The legacy? Not so much. Learn what IKEA’s founder did in the 1980s to protect the company mission forever.

👥 50+ CEOs gathering in Sofia (June 19th) - as communities are growing, CEO After Hours is gathering successful executives doing over 1M in revenue each. Happy to meet the community on Thursday, are you coming?

💼 Preparation beats good luck. Strong outcomes follow consistent routines more often than spontaneous inspiration.

🔖 Better BI drives faster decisions. Collaborative dashboards help teams use shared insights to align quickly.

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🔖 Fast growth needs strong tech foundations. Align departments and reduce friction with smart API approaches.

📰 Rare earths remain a strategic headache. The U.S. struggles to reduce dependence on China in securing critical materials like rare earths despite tariffs and plans.

📰 Adobe bets big on AI creator talent. At Cannes Lions, Adobe works with emerging creators to build the future of AI-driven content.

📰 CEOs and CMOs lose alignment. Strategic misalignment at the top is hurting performance, according to new McKinsey findings.

📰 TikTok becomes a B2B channel. Business marketers are finding ways to reach buyers by rethinking TikTok’s potential.

📰 Update SEO metrics for the LLM era. Signals like engagement and brand recall matter more than traffic in today’s search landscape.

📰 Google builds AI security tools for India. A new center and local partnerships target rising fraud with AI-led prevention systems.

📰 Keep an eye on the smart money in Southeast Asia. AI supply chains and manufacturing are quietly outpacing legacy sectors.

📰 Supporting the drive behind strategic acquisitions. James Hardie funds its AZEK acquisition via a $1.7B notes offering.

📰 Blackstone's European power play. A $500B plan bets on long-overlooked value in Europe.

📰 Defense tech goes mainstream. A €600M Helsing investment shows how Europe backs sovereign defense technology.

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