2025 GDP forecasts in B2B, retention up, brand & data MOATs

You’re reading the Growth Shuttle Insider, gathering 17,000+ B2B executives, investors, and professionals making smart strategic decisions based on a blend of macro and real-world business data.  

🎙️ I had the opportunity to interview Brad Kayton, the regional director of The CFO Centre, a former serial CEO, investor, board member, and more accolades I can list down in a short brief.

As I’m running my B2B digital and service business overview on the macro environment, Brad has provided incredible insights, know-how, and historical reference on tariffs, different forms of taxes, opportunities for product and manufacturing businesses in the States, and 2025 forecasts that every corporation dealing with imports need to carefully watch this week:

My Growth Shuttle Insider breakdown I share here every Wednesday is based on my business outlook as a founder and investor + my background as a technologist, but hiring a fractional CFO is the best way to navigate 2025 - and The CFO Centre offers a 30-minute discovery call to take the first step here ⬆️ 

And here’s how I apply the market news + Brad’s analysis for our strategic planning over the next 3 months.

With market data swinging up and down multiple times a week, there’s a scarcity among business executives out there.

But compared to the last 2 years of doom and gloom in B2B, the market is cruising - and even growing and running at full power during Q1 this year.

Macroeconomic breakdown - current data

• The Fed dropped GMV forecast for 2025 from 2.1% back in Dec to 1.7% now

• February inflation was 2.8%, lower than initially expected

• S&P 500 had a rough month, but it’s now down 1.7% since the start of the year

• Tariffs are coming, but Trump is backing down on some, promising adjustments, cuts, agreements, and different negotiations

• Core PCE readout expected today, but forecasts are matching January data

• Unemployment rate matching the EOY 2021 data

Other ways to split data by Kevin Gordon (posted on Monday):

As volatility in business, gold, currency exchange rates, and even crypto has been concerning, let’s remember that we’re cruising based on 15 years of “mostly upward pointing” market data, though previous drops were harder to recover from, specifically around the collapse of tech during the dot com boom.

And considering the GDP forecasts for the year between 1.7% and 2.1%, it’s lower than the past 3 years, but still in line with 2010 - 2019 data (post-global recession and pre-covid):

Employee retention is up

After the “Great Resignation” and a couple of other phases (including WFH), the market is normalizing right now with fewer job opportunities and more demand for the same seat.

As Fortune’s recent title states, “Sorry Gen Z, the days of job-hopping salary hikes are over: For the first time in 10 years, staying loyal pays just as well.”

The slower market + uncertainty + fewer open roles + AI optimizations - and employers “optimizing for efficiency” while trying to avoid all the workplace drama, market dynamics are leaning on the side of employers.

These trends swing in either direction every 1-4 years, but the positive uptick here is retaining staff for longer. This unlocks opportunities to invest in additional qualification, build long-term plans with additional confidence, and develop management and leadership teams without the constant nudges and negotiations or churns in the process.

Brand & data companies lead the market

Most brands are familiar with “the rule of 7” - prospects having to see a brand at least 7 times before they consider making a purchase.

Realistically, high AOV deals in B2B yield different results, with different studies reporting over 40 required touch points.

Building this from scratch is very expensive. And with more AI tools spinning up every other day, the saturated market requires more audience development and brand affinity.

This is where long-lasting brands have an edge: the initial traction and the longevity of a business sees a positive effect in closing a deal sooner and faster.

The second biggest perk is a data MOAT.

• Google has indexed the largest web archive (and now, GPTs are trailing quickly)

• HubSpot builds features based on millions of companies

• Accenture sells consulting due to proprietary frameworks and data from government and military contracts others don’t have

• Media agencies sell aggregated know-how of market data and metrics across a portfolio of clients

Developing and nurturing unique sets of data is the key currency today.

And so is building an audience, but most true B2B audiences stick around because of that proprietary insight or the brand clout.

This is why I keep growing the B2B ecosystem and invest a lot of my time in DevriX and Growth Shuttle. DevriX has been around for 15 years and conversion rates are strong with some of our clients with us for 8 or 9 years now. And consulting hundreds of clients with the Async Advisory helped develop multiple frameworks around actual problems businesses face on a daily basis (let alone the market data of audiences, insights, traffic, acquisition channels and sources, and GTM motions that work.)

Even my recent sponsorship packages are designed around strategic partnerships and relationships with other successful brands - developing new internal channels, offering discounts for my audience, and building connectors and extensions on the go.

Check out the next section for my macro & business conversations on the go.

Mario

💼 Talent survival is a matter of adaptation (and learning) - I reposted a commentary by Eric Siu and shared why tech, marketing, AI, communication, soft skills are integral in today’s day and age, and certain skills should be picked up outside of business hours (otherwise applicants will keep lagging behind).

✍️Why creating fictional enemies is toxic - I posted an excerpt of a podcast with Simon Sinek and Scott Galloway packed with value bombs (just like every conversation with either of them.) What stuck with me is the need to fight a common enemy, and how polarized social media serves that need in times of peace and freedom.

📰 Don’t cold email with burner emails. I consider this a red flag while cleaning my email and this may ruin a deal in the process. Executives keep their emails for decades and crossing the line ones may be too much. Either way, check my previous podcast with Hypergen’s Alex on proper best practices in the cold outreach space.

✍️ Why AI coders are producing vulnerable software. I usually avoid hyped AI conversations (and development topics) despite my background, but this one got 460,000 views on LinkedIn and it appears to ring true to many tech leaders. I see more and more security breaches due to this.

Also, I authored a piece for Marketing Profs:

🔖 Real-time bid optimization in action. While real-time bidding offers flexibility, issues like lagging data, unstable budgets, and underperforming algorithms often get in the way. This breakdown of more effective strategies looks at how teams are working around those roadblocks to improve bid performance and spend more efficiently.

🔖 Strengthen revenue stability. Relying on a single income stream leaves businesses exposed. Tracking the right revenue diversification KPIs can help reduce risk, improve forecasting, and uncover overlooked growth channels.

🔖 Boost video performance with key metrics. Getting a clear view of how people interact with your videos can guide smarter content choices. This breakdown of video engagement metrics shows what to track, how to interpret the numbers, and where to make adjustments that actually matter.

🔖 Seamless ERP data migration. Moving legacy data into a new ERP system can unlock better workflows, but it’s rarely straightforward. Addressing data quality issues early and sticking to a structured process makes a big difference. This practical guide breaks down the key steps and considerations to help you manage the transition without unnecessary setbacks.

🔖 Unlock precision in targeting. Go deeper than broad audience categories by using technographic segmentation. Understanding which tools and platforms your customers rely on can inform outreach strategies, refine product alignment, and highlight where you stand against competitors.

📃 Strategy, not just automation, is key to AI maturity. AI use in media and marketing is growing fast, but many brands aren’t keeping pace. The IAB’s State of Data 2025 report shows agencies and publishers are ahead, applying AI in media planning and execution, while brands struggle with data reliability, internal coordination, and adoption beyond isolated teams. Progress depends less on tools and more on a clear approach — training, accountability, and shared metrics. The gap is no longer about access but about execution.

📰 Napster gets a new life in immersive media. Infinite Reality has acquired Napster for $207 million, aiming to transform the once-revolutionary music-sharing platform into a new kind of artist-fan ecosystem. With immersive tools and AI-driven capabilities, the company plans to turn Napster into a destination for virtual concerts, exclusive content drops, and 3D fan experiences. CEO Jon Vlassopulos will stay at the helm as Napster expands under its new owner,

📃 Brand-owned communities are replacing rented reach. Companies relying on platforms like LinkedIn and Slack to host their audiences risk sudden disconnection when policies shift or accounts vanish. As explored in this piece on brand-owned communities, a shift is underway: brands are moving from building followings on third-party platforms to creating spaces they fully control.

📃 SAP becomes Europe’s most valuable company. Software giant SAP has overtaken Novo Nordisk to become Europe’s most valuable firm, with a market cap of $342 billion. Fueled by AI-driven cloud offerings and Germany’s stock market surge, SAP shares have climbed over 40% in the past year.

📃 DNA testing firm 23andMe files for bankruptcy. Genetic testing pioneer 23andMe has filed for bankruptcy protection, with co-founder Anne Wojcicki stepping down as CEO. Once valued at $6 billion, the company has struggled to recover from a 2023 data breach that exposed the personal information of millions of users and prompted regulatory scrutiny in both the UK and Canada.

📃 Dell’s headcount drops 10% in FY25. Dell Technologies has cut its workforce by 10%, reducing headcount from 120,000 to 108,000 by the end of January 2025. The drop follows a 5% decline in the previous fiscal year, as the company navigates rising costs in the AI server market and projects thinner margins for fiscal 2026.

Let’s see the latest offers from Flippa. Don’t forget to sign up for their newsletter for daily/weekly/monthly offers such as these.

Financial Trading SaaS: This profitable fintech platform has grown organically over three years, offering automatic trading signals across stocks, crypto, and forex with a 95% profit margin, listed at $11,900 (closes on March 27).

AI Avatar Generator App: A low‑overhead mobile app boasting 500K+ organic installs and a 4‑star rating, generating $15,000 in annual profit, available for $44,100.

🔒 6‑Site Blog Portfolio: A 25‑year‑old collection of sites in the design, manufacturing, IT, and tech niches, with 158K subscribers and 164K monthly page views, earning $17K in annual profit, priced at $68,200.

Land Buying Marketplace: A mature (9‑year‑old) marketplace for land, farms, and ranches boasting 70% organic traffic, $287K TTM revenue, and $131K annual profit, available for $550,000.

Educational E‑commerce Brand: A 2‑year‑old education ecommerce business with 1M+ followers, 65+ localized sites & 120K+ clients, generating €60,194 monthly profit (29% margin) on $2.9M TTM revenue, priced at $2,615,213.

Business Acquisition Site: A high‑margin acquisition marketplace delivering $1.7 M in annual profit at a 69% margin with 14K monthly page views, listed for $2,750,000.

Presentation Decks Template SaaS: This 10‑year‑old template SaaS boasts 45K+ premium slides, drives 959K monthly page views, and nets $792,543 in annual profit, priced at $4,130,710.

Walking Tours YouTube Channel: This evergreen 4K walking‑tour channel has amassed 134K subscribers and 1.8M views in 28 days, delivering $159K annual profit at an 81% margin, available for $590,000.

Need My Help?

Keeping myself busy - here are the main projects I focus on:

🌐 Scaling WordPress past 100M views? DevriX provides martech retainers to SMEs, publishers, eCommerce, SaaS, and more. Our plans start from $1,200/mo to $40K/mo and we manage high-traffic platforms, B2B SaaS apps, partnership management solutions, supporting $10M - $250M businesses with scalability, custom funnels, CRO, big data augmentation, AI-driven processes, HubSpot workflows, programmatic SEO - and everything a modern business requires in digital in 2025.

🚀  Work 1:1 with me? At Growth Shuttle, I run two popular plans: Async Advisory for $3M - $30M founders and executive teams and the smaller Strategic Growth Circle for $100K - $500K entrepreneurs, agency founders, scale ups.

📈 International founder looking into US LLCs? Check out doola and their “Business in a Box” model. Suitable for both foreigners and US citizens and both for residents and non-residents.

📊 Into digital M&A? I work closely with Flippa’s marketplace. They offer a vast variety of online businesses for any buyer’s interest. Or if you’re ready for an exit, Flippa provides the tools to list your business and close the deal.

💼 Looking for investment opportunities? Check out SeedBlink and use Equity to manage your ESOP tables in-house.